10-Year Treasury Falls Below 5%: Will MYGA Rates Follow?

Will MYGA Rates Drop Now That the 10-Year Treasury Is Below 5%?

Probably, but not this week. MYGA rates follow Treasury and corporate bond yields with a lag of two to six weeks, and the 10-year Treasury just fell from 5.29% at the end of September to 4.94% on October 30. If you have a MYGA quote you like, the application date is what protects it, not the day the carrier changes its rate sheet.

Below is what moved, why it moved, how carriers reprice, and how a MYGA rate lock works when you already have a quote in hand.

What Happened to Treasury Yields in October?

The 10-year Treasury spent most of October above 5% and then gave most of the month’s climb back in the final week. Here is the path, using the Federal Reserve’s daily H.15 constant-maturity yields:

• September 30: 10-year at 5.29%.
• October 5: 5.31%, the 52-week high.
• October 26: 5.00%.
• October 28: 5.05%, the day the Fed held rates steady.
• October 29: 4.98%.
• October 30: 4.94%, the lowest close since mid-September.

That is a drop of about 35 basis points for the month. The 5-year Treasury, the maturity that matters most for 5-year MYGA pricing, slid from 4.84% to 4.78% in the final week alone.

Investing.com called October the biggest Treasury rally since 2024. In bond terms, a rally means Treasury prices rose and yields fell, which is why it points to lower MYGA rates, not higher ones.

For the longer backstory on why yields climbed in the first place, see our September coverage of what the Fed rate hike means for annuity rates.

Why Did Yields Fall So Fast?

Money ran from stocks into bonds. Three forces stacked up in the last week of October:

• A tech selloff: earnings from Alphabet, Amazon and Intel raised doubts about how much debt-financed AI spending investors will tolerate. Falling tech shares pushed money into Treasuries, which lifts bond prices and lowers yields.
• The prior spike had run out of fuel: Middle East tensions and oil above $117 a barrel earlier in the month had driven yields to a two-decade high. As oil eased, part of that inflation premium came out.
• A Fed on hold: on October 28 the Federal Open Market Committee left the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4.00% in a 10-2 vote, after raising it in September. No new hike meant no new reason to push yields higher.

The Fed only sets the overnight rate. Annuity carriers price off the 5-, 7- and 10-year parts of the curve, which is why how annuity rates are set depends far more on the bond market than on any single Fed meeting.

How Fast Do Carriers Reprice MYGAs?

Usually two to six weeks after new-money bond yields move. Carriers buy investment-grade corporate bonds to back new MYGA contracts, so the rate they can afford to pay you is set by what those bonds yield when your premium arrives.

Three things decide how quickly a given carrier moves:

• Effective-date notices: rate changes arrive as a bulletin that says “new rates effective” on a stated date. Many carriers batch changes around the 1st and 15th of the month, which puts mid-November in play after an October move like this one.
• Sales targets: a carrier that is behind its premium goal for the year often holds rates longer to keep applications flowing. A carrier that is ahead cuts first.
• Spread over Treasuries: MYGA rates track corporate yields, not Treasuries directly. When corporate spreads widen during a stock selloff, part of the Treasury drop never reaches your rate.

A rate cut of 25 basis points sounds small. On a $200,000 5-year MYGA, moving from 5.25% to 5.00% costs about $3,050 in guaranteed interest over the term, before taxes.

Today’s top 5-year rates are below. They update from our live rate feed, so what you see here is what is available now, not a snapshot from October.

How Does a MYGA Rate Lock Work?

A MYGA rate lock holds the rate in effect on the day the carrier receives your signed application, as long as your money arrives inside the carrier’s window. You do not need the money in place to lock. You need the paperwork in.

The rules differ by carrier, but the usual shape is:

• Cash and check purchases: most carriers hold the quoted rate for 30 to 60 days from the application signature date if funds arrive within that window.
• 1035 exchanges and IRA transfers: because the money comes from another institution, carriers typically allow a longer window, often 45 to 90 days, since the delay is not in your control.
• Rate goes up before funding: many carriers give you the higher rate automatically. Some require you to ask. Confirm which before you sign.
• Funds arrive late: you get the rate in effect on the day the money lands, not the rate on your quote. A stalled transfer is the most common way a lock is lost.

How Do I Check My Carrier’s Rate Lock Rules?

Ask three questions before you sign, and get the answers in writing. Carrier rate lock policies are not usually printed on the rate sheet.

1. How many days is the lock, and does it start from the application signature date or the date the home office receives it?
2. Does the lock differ for transfers? If you are moving an IRA or doing a 1035 exchange, ask for the transfer window specifically.
3. What happens if rates rise before my funds arrive? You want the carrier that gives you the better of the two rates.

Our licensed team checks these rules against the current carrier bulletin for every quote we send. If you are already working from a rate you saw on our fixed annuity rates table, the quote will show the lock terms for that specific contract.

What Should You Do With Your Money Right Now?

It depends on where you are in the process.

• You have a quote you like: get the application in this week. The signature date locks the rate. Funding can follow within the carrier’s window.
• You are early in the process: compare 5- and 7-year terms now rather than at year end. Longer terms lock the current yield for longer, which matters most when rates are heading down. Our guide to the best MYGAs of 2026 explains how to weigh term length against liquidity.
• You are waiting for higher rates: that bet can still pay off. Third-quarter GDP came in at a 3.4% annualized pace, two FOMC members dissented at the October meeting, and a hot inflation print could push yields back above 5% as fast as they fell. But waiting means accepting whatever rate is in effect when you finally apply, with no lock protecting you in the meantime.

One more check before you sign anything: if the contract carries a market value adjustment, falling yields work in your favor on an early withdrawal. Our market value adjustment guide explains how the MVA formula responds when rates drop after you buy.

Will MYGA Rates Follow the 10-Year Treasury Below 5%?

Yes, with a lag. The 10-year Treasury’s drop from 5.29% to 4.94% in October will show up in carrier rate bulletins over the next two to six weeks, most likely around mid-November, and the 5-year Treasury’s move is already pressuring 5-year MYGA pricing. If you have a quote in hand, a signed application locks today’s MYGA rates for 30 to 60 days at most carriers, and longer for transfers, so the rate you were quoted is yours to keep if the paperwork is in before the bulletin lands.

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