Rates as of October 2026. Fed and Treasury data as of October 12, 2026.
Will annuity rates go up? Probably a little more, but the push is coming from the bond market, not the Fed. The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed from 5.01% on the day of the Fed’s September hike to 5.28% on October 7, and fixed annuity rates are priced off yields like that one.
Two dates over the next 16 days will settle most of the “buy now or wait” question:
- Wednesday, October 14: the September inflation report
- Wednesday, October 28: the Fed’s next rate decision
Will annuity rates go up after the October Fed meeting?
Not because of the meeting itself. As of October 7, futures traders saw about a 17% chance of an October rate hike. They put the odds of a December hike at about 84%, according to CME FedWatch.
Even a surprise hike would matter less than where long-term yields go next. Today’s best multi-year guaranteed annuity (MYGA) rates pay 6.50% for 3 years, 7.00% for 5 years, and 7.10% for 7 years.
What the Fed minutes said
The Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate is 3.75% to 4.00% as of October 14, 2026. The last move was a 25 basis point hike, effective September 17, 2026, which left the target at its highest level since December 2025. Over the past 12 months the Fed has made 1 hike and 2 cuts.The September 16 hike was unanimous. Minutes released October 7 show that “most participants” thought another increase “would likely be appropriate by year end,” but they gave no sign of which meeting.
Officials also disagreed on why they hiked. Some called it insurance against inflation staying stubbornly above target, while others pointed to price increases tied to disruptions in energy markets.
Show recent Fed rate changes as a table
| Date | Upper bound | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026 | 4.00% | +25 bps |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3.75% | -25 bps |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 4.00% | -25 bps |
| Sep 18, 2025 | 4.25% | -25 bps |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 4.50% | -25 bps |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 4.75% | -25 bps |
| Sep 19, 2024 | 5.00% | -50 bps |
| Jul 27, 2023 | 5.50% | +25 bps |
| May 4, 2023 | 5.25% | +25 bps |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 5.00% | +25 bps |
| Feb 2, 2023 | 4.75% | +25 bps |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 4.50% |
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED series DFEDTARU (DFEDTAR before December 16, 2008). Updated automatically.
What changed since the September hike
The jobs report is what moved the odds:
- Hiring nearly stalled. Employers added just 29,000 jobs in September. Forecasts were above 80,000.
- Earlier months got weaker. The prior two months were revised down by a combined 60,000 jobs.
- The hike bet moved. Traders shifted the next expected increase from October to December.
A weak jobs report usually pulls long-term yields down. This time the 10-year Treasury kept climbing, to 5.31% on October 5, before settling at 5.22% on October 8. Inflation worries, not the Fed’s calendar, are setting the pace, and that has kept MYGA rates strong.
Why Wednesday’s inflation report matters more than the Fed
The government releases September consumer price index (CPI) data on Wednesday, October 14, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. MUFG expects headline inflation of 3.6%, up from 3.4% in August, with energy prices doing almost all of the work.
The number to watch is core inflation, which leaves out food and energy. MUFG expects core prices to rise 0.2% for the month, and says a repeat of August’s 0.3% would likely revive bets on an October hike.
What each outcome could mean for annuity rates:
- Hot report: long-term yields likely rise, and MYGA rates hold firm or tick up.
- Soft report: yields could give back some of the recent rise, and carriers would follow within a few weeks.
Why annuity rates follow Treasury yields
When you buy a fixed annuity, the insurance company invests your premium mostly in investment-grade bonds with maturities of five to ten years or longer. The rate it can guarantee you is roughly what those bonds yield, minus its costs and margin. The Fed’s overnight target only matters to the extent it moves those yields.
Bond traders also price an expected hike in advance. Carriers have been repricing to a December move for weeks. For more on how the two connect, see what the Fed rate hike means for annuity rates.
Our own rate history shows the lag. Top 5-year MYGA rates climbed through the Fed’s 2022-23 hiking cycle, then kept rising and peaked in mid-2024, a year after the Fed’s last hike.
Should you buy now or wait for higher rates?
Waiting has a cost: the interest you are not earning while you wait. A quarter-point increase is worth $250 a year on $100,000. Give up two months of interest at 6% to get it, and you are down about $1,000, so the higher rate needs roughly four years just to break even.
If you can’t decide, you don’t have to pick one date. Two simple hedges:
- Buy in two steps. Put part of the money in now and hold the rest in a money market or short-term MYGA until after the October 28 decision. If rates rise, the second half catches them. If they fall, the first half already locked today’s rate.
- Split across terms. Spread the money across 3-, 5-, and 7-year MYGAs. The 3-year matures soonest and renews into whatever the market pays then, while the 7-year carries today’s rate forward. This is the idea behind an annuity ladder strategy.
Whichever you choose, compare across carriers. Rates on the same term and rating can differ by more than the Fed’s entire September move. You can compare the best fixed annuity rates or see every MYGA rate today by term.
Lock in today's MYGA rate before the October 28 Fed decision
Your rate is set by your application date, not the day rates change. Request a quote and we will confirm current rates for your state and premium, in writing, so you can decide before the market moves.
Prefer to talk it through? Call 855-277-8088. So will annuity rates go up? Watch the 10-year Treasury after Wednesday’s inflation report, not the Fed’s headline on October 28.
Frequently asked questions
Will annuity rates go up in 2026?
They may edge higher before year-end, but don’t expect a big jump. Most Fed officials expect one more rate hike this year, and the bond market has largely priced it in already.
Do annuity rates go up when the Fed raises rates?
Not directly. The Fed sets an overnight rate, while fixed annuity rates track long-term bond yields. The two often move together, but not always: in late 2024 the Fed cut rates three times and the 10-year yield went up.
When is the next Fed meeting?
The Federal Open Market Committee meets October 27-28, 2026, and announces its decision on October 28.
Should I wait for annuity rates to go up before buying?
Only if you expect a big enough increase to make up for the interest you give up while you wait. A small bump can take years to recover a few months of lost interest. Buying in two steps or splitting across 3-, 5-, and 7-year terms lets you lock some in now and stay flexible with the rest.
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Editorial Disclosure: Our editorial team independently reviews and rates annuity products. My Annuity Store earns a commission from the insurance company if you purchase an annuity through our platform. There is no fee to you. This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, or legal advice. Annuity products vary by state and carrier. Learn more.
